Around the Diaoyu Island incident, the Japanese government "buy", Sino-Japanese relations are pushed to the cusp. Both the political and the military and civil in intensive position, four decades since the normalization of diplomatic relations, Sino-Japanese relations may be the secondary fell ravine.
Under the domestic political and social pressure to take counter-measures in China is inevitable. The Sino-Japanese friction is due to the Diaoyu Islands issue into the sky, the future core around the actual control over Diaoyu Islands. If the counter-measures to make Japan on the Diaoyu Islands, the so-called "actual control" bathing, that China will be a major achievement. More likely, the two sides in the waters of the Diaoyu Islands into the cold stalemate "and" cold confrontation state ocean surveillance ship, the two sides to each other "light muscle" and even "physical contact" class ocean surveillance ship collision occurred, but not quite may develop into a military conflict.
Military conflict temporarily impossible, it is more possible counter-measures is economic sanctions, which is more viable than the military conflict, the impact of the larger and more lasting. Japan's Canon Institute research director of global strategy Seto mouth Kiyoyuki admits: most worried about is that the Chinese Government is considering the introduction of the day (economic) policy of restricting. If China really began the economic sanctions against Japan, in which an impact? And how would the Chinese LED industries have much impact?
First Sino-Japanese trade will be greatly affected. Since 2007, China became Japan's largest trading nation. Today, China remains the largest trading partner of Japan, the largest export market and source of imports. According to the statistics of the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO), Japanese trade volume in 2011 reached $ 344.9 billion, of which $ 183.4 billion of imports from China on Chinese exports of $ 161.4 billion; 2011, Japan's trade with China accounted for the proportion of the total foreign trade of Japan was 20.6%. The first half of this year, Japan's imports from China were $ 91.3 billion, a record high, the import and export of a total of $ 165 billion, a year-on-year growth of 1.1%. Japan-China trade accounted for 19.3% of Japan's total foreign trade, a year-on-year decline of 1.3 percentage points. The same period, Japan's trade deficit with China increased by 2.6 times over the same period last year, to 1.401 trillion yen, the total volume of exports to China decreased by 5.7% year-on-year.
Second, China holds a large number of Japanese government bonds. According to the Japanese Ministry of Finance, Japan's central bank announced the international balance of payments statistics show that the amount of Japanese government bonds held by China is rapidly expanding, holding reached the highest in the history of the 18 trillion yen as of the end of 2011, representing an increase of 71% over last year. Holdings of China's rapid growth since 2009, beyond the United States and Britain to become the largest holders of Japanese government bonds in 2010. In addition, the end of the year 2012, Japan's central and local government's long-term debt to GDP ratio will reach 195%, more than deep sovereign debt crisis, Italy (128.1%), the highest in the developed world, but also the countries with the highest government debt around the world . Government debt factors make Japan is bound to take into account China's actions to avoid China's sharp sell-off.
Third, the Chinese travel to Japan may be substantially reduced. According to the Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO), the number of Chinese visitors to Japan in 2011 to 104.35 million, a significant decrease of 26.1% than last year (by the Japan earthquake). From January to July this year, substantially more than the same period last year increased to 94.76 million, an increase of 72.3%. An increase in the number of tourists in July more than doubled the monthly number of tourists exceeded 20 million for the first time.
Fourth, China is an important investment and one in Japan. In 2011, Japan's investment in actual capital in place of $ 6.33 billion, a year-on-year surge 55.1%. As of the end of June this year, Japan's investment in China accumulated actual place the amount of $ 83.97 billion, ranked the highest in the country of China's utilization of foreign investment. Japanese investment, the impact of economic sanctions on the two sides are not a small loss.
Fifth, the strategic resources is also capable of effective checks and balances in Japan an "economic card". Rare earth, rare earth and other strategic resources to the development of high-end manufacturing, material essential to the production of high-end industrial raw materials, China's rare earth reserves account for about 23% of the world's total reserves, bear more than 90% of the world market supply. Japan's high-end manufacturing rare metals imported mostly from China, if economic sanctions began, the Japanese companies will be eager to come to alternatives.
